People have been writing Thom Tillis’s political obituary for more than a decade.
When he pushed against President Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees. When he backed red flag laws. When he voted to codify same-sex marriage.
Each time, the Republican base in North Carolina declared him done. And each time, he wasn’t.
Until now.
North Carolina’s senior senator, who built an entire career on defying expectations, announced Sunday that he will not seek re-election in 2026.
The decision came just hours after Trump unleashed a scorched-earth tirade, accusing Tillis of betrayal and pledging to find a primary challenger to replace him.
Tillis was one of only two Republican senators to vote against advancing the sprawling “Big Beautiful Bill” late Saturday.
In voting no, Tillis cited the proposed cuts to Medicaid that are part of the president’s signature policy proposal. The vote passed anyway.
Trump, never one to let disloyalty slide, responded with fury. “Numerous people have come forward wanting to run in the Primary,” he posted on Truth Social. “I will be meeting with them over the coming weeks, looking for someone who will properly represent the Great People of North Carolina.”
Tillis navigated an on-again, off-again relationship with Trump for nearly a decade. He’s walked this tightrope before and always managed to patch things up. I thought there was a chance he’d do it again.
But maybe this time, he didn’t want to. Maybe, after years of threading impossible needles, Tillis decided he didn’t want to spend another campaign pretending to be someone he’s not.
Either way, this wasn’t just another wobble. It was the end of the line.
The old Tillis playbook couldn’t work this time
Tillis’s decision Sunday was so surprising because we’d all seen this movie before — or at least, we thought we had.
Tillis faced similar conservative blowback in 2019 when he opposed Trump’s emergency declaration for the border wall, only to reverse course weeks later after intense pressure. The same thing happened earlier this year, when Tillis considered opposing Pete Hegseth’s nomination for Secretary of Defense. He ultimately voted to confirm Hegseth.
In both cases, Tillis survived by tacking back toward the base just in time, deploying establishment allies to smooth things over, and counting on a lack of viable challengers.
But the stakes are different now. The base is more combative, and Trump’s influence is significantly stronger than it was in 2020.
