The red wave that wasn’t

In many ways the Democrats’ performance looked more like the result of a vote against Republican extremism than a vote of confidence in Mr. Biden’s party.

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Editorials

November 10, 2022 - 3:30 PM

Democrat John Fetterman Wednesday morning after defeating his Republican opponent, Mehmet Oz, in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race, which is currently occupied by Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, who did not seek re-election. Photo by TNS

Some setbacks count almost as good news. Clearly, the Democrats have lost ground in the midterms. While it will be weeks before control of the Senate is determined because of the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff, the Republicans still appear likely to take the House, though more narrowly than hoped. They will use control to mire the administration in legislative deadlock and committee investigations. High-profile Democrats such as Stacey Abrams in Georgia and Beto O’Rourke in Texas were also easily defeated.

But this was “definitely not a Republican wave, that is for darn sure,” Sen. Lindsey Graham acknowledged as early results came in on Tuesday night. The sense of the GOP falling short is not just about pre-poll punditry. Joe Biden may be on track for the best performance by an incumbent in the midterms since 2002, when George W Bush enjoyed extraordinary popularity in the wake of September 11. Mr. Biden’s approval ratings are mediocre at best, thanks in large part to high inflation. Yet the president appears to have done markedly better than Barack Obama did in 2010 on similar figures.

It was also a bad night for Donald Trump, expected to declare his 2024 candidacy this week. There will be an increased MAGA caucus in the House (giving Kevin McCarthy, currently minority leader, a headache). But while the former president’s support may be critical in primaries, it looks less helpful in general elections. True, JD Vance won his Senate race in Ohio; but the Democrat John Fetterman flipped Pennsylvania, defeating Mehmet Oz, and in Michigan, the governor Gretchen Whitmer saw off the challenge from Tudor Dixon. 

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