Kris Kobach eking out a narrow primary victory against divided opponents. A Democratic woman stressing moderate themes, health care, and good government, defeating Kobach in the general election. It happened in 2018, and it could happen again.
In 2018, firebrand Kobach defeated incumbent Jeff Colyer to capture the Republican nomination for Governor. The margin was 343 votes. The presence of “spoiler” candidates Jim Barnett, Ken Seltzer, Patrick Kucera, and — seriously — two high school students almost certainly accounts for Kobach’s margin. Outspoken and controversial, Kobach went on to lose to Democrat Laura Kelly. Kelly may have also benefitted from a national turnout boost by college-educated women opposed to President Trump, also an important factor in the upset win of Congresswoman Sharice Davids in the 3rd district.
Will it be back to the future this year?