Six months into Russia’s invasion of its neighbor, the democratic world has come together to support Ukraine’s self-defense and impose punishments on Vladimir Putin and his enablers. Yet it hasn’t stopped the bloodshed — and Putin is betting that Western unity will crumble as winter sets in and Europeans find themselves squeezed by food and energy prices. Proving him wrong will require Europe’s leaders to prepare their publics for a protracted war and increase support to those least able to shoulder its costs.
In both the U.S. and Europe, public opinion has overwhelmingly backed efforts to help Ukraine resist Putin’s aggression, but that resolve is likely to wane as the war drags on. In a poll of 10 European countries taken in May, 42% of respondents said their governments pay too much attention to Ukraine relative to their troubles; in Romania and Poland, two frontline countries, the number is more than 50%. Europeans rank the increased cost of living and energy prices at the top of their concerns around the war, alongside nuclear weapon use. In Germany, a Forsa survey in July found support for a boycott of Russian gas, a key means of squeezing the Kremlin, had shrunk to just under one-third of respondents, down from 44% six weeks earlier.
To overcome fatigue with the war effort, Europe’s leaders need to clarify their goals in Ukraine. While the priorities of individual governments will inevitably vary, there should be broad agreement around a few core objectives: defending Ukraine’s democratically elected leadership and its self-determination; holding Russian forces accountable for war crimes; and avoiding any cease-fire that leaves Ukraine vulnerable to renewed Russian aggression. At a minimum, Europe will need to maintain current sanctions against the Kremlin and continue to provide economic assistance to Ukraine for months to come.
To their credit, European leaders have so far ruled out any easing of sanctions on Russia, but more should be done to respond to public restiveness. Policy makers should stress that aiding Ukraine is in Europe’s self-interest, because allowing Putin to prevail will embolden not only the Kremlin, but other autocrats with revanchist ambitions. And they should counter Russian disinformation about the purported shortcomings of Western policy by doing more to highlight its successes — including weakening Russia’s economy, thwarting Putin’s effort to replace President Volodymyr Zelenskiy with a puppet leader, and increasing the size and strength of NATO.
It’s equally important that Western governments communicate honestly about the potential pain ahead. The impact on disposable incomes has been uneven, but the International Monetary Fund estimates an average cost of living increase for European households of close to 7% of consumption in 2022.
With Russia squeezing gas supplies — and threatening to shut them off altogether — the situation is not improving, and European consumers face a grim winter. The UK is bracing for organized blackouts. While everyone will suffer, governments should focus their assistance on those at greatest risk. Targeted income support for the poor is a more cost-effective approach than tax reductions and price controls, which won’t incentivize families to reduce consumption or invest in increased efficiency.
Above all, European leaders must urge patience. The moral outrage and solidarity of Western publics has bolstered Ukraine’s morale and helped its forces withstand Russia’s onslaught. But the fight to preserve the country’s freedom won’t end soon.
