The Trump administration’s strange affection for prediction markets

Prediction markets are gambling. Money is placed on an outcome, and one side wins while another loses. These are bets, not "contracts"

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Editorials

October 1, 2026 - 5:31 PM

Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres throws the ball in front of a Kalshi ad before the game against the New York Yankees at Petco Park on Friday, Sept. 4, 2026, in San Diego. (Meg McLaughlin/The San Diego Union-Tribune/TNS)

There is something genuinely strange happening at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency responsible for regulating derivatives markets. Under Chairman Michael Selig, the CFTC has challenged states seeking to regulate prediction platforms, arguing that federally designated contract markets fall within its exclusive jurisdiction.

To understand why this dispute matters, let’s return to the original purpose of futures markets. Congress developed the federal framework for commodity futures during the early 20th century partly to stabilize an agricultural…

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