President Trump wants peace in Ukraine, but Vladimir Putin keeps tapping the U.S. along. Witness the Russian leader’s embarrassing no-show in Istanbul Thursday.
This revealing episode began last week as the leaders of the major European nations proposed “a full and unconditional 30-day cease-fire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.” That’s also a goal of Ukraine and Mr. Trump, but again Mr. Putin responded with a hard nyet.
The Russian leader countered with an offer of direct talks between Ukraine and Russia. Mr. Trump then demanded that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accept. Yet on Thursday Mr. Putin stood up Mr. Zelensky, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Mr. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff. The Kremlin sent a low-level delegation instead, similar to the one he’d sent in 2022 for talks that weren’t serious.
Mr. Trump, who is in the Middle East, first said he might take a side trip to Turkey if peace talks took place. But after Mr. Putin bugged out, Mr. Trump tried to smooth over the embarrassment by saying “nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together.”
It’s closer to reality to say that nothing is going to happen until Mr. Putin feels he has an incentive to show up and negotiate. Mr. Putin’s no-show is the latest evidence that the Russian isn’t serious about ending the war, and it’s no surprise. Mr. Putin thinks Mr. Trump might abandon Ukraine and make it easier for him to keep taking Ukrainian territory.
Since Mr. Trump’s inauguration, Mr. Putin has launched 346 missiles and more than 13,000 real and decoy drones at Ukraine, according to an Institute for the Study of War tally. “Vladimir, STOP!” Mr. Trump implored on social-media after a Russian strike killed civilians in Kyiv late last month. Mr. Putin hasn’t stopped. An attack on the capital last week killed civilians.
As the summer months near, Russia seems to be preparing for a new offensive. Russia has gained some territory in Ukraine’s east over the winter but at great cost and with no strategic breakthroughs. But Mr. Putin knows Ukraine will run out of its current stock of American munitions in weeks.
Mr. Trump has made a sincere effort to broker an end to the war, but the President looks worse the longer Mr. Putin talks peace but prosecutes the war. Mr. Trump doesn’t want the world to see him looking like a supplicant to the Kremlin.
The best path to peace is to increase the pressure on Moscow. Mr. Trump can start with secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian energy. Former U.S. Treasury chief economist Eric Van Nostrand wrote on these pages this week that removing a quarter of Russia’s oil exports from the market would cut the Kremlin’s oil revenue by 20%. Global oil production is high enough that it wouldn’t raise gas prices in the U.S. by much.
Mr. Trump could also announce his support for more military aid for Ukraine. Then when Mr. Trump finally meets with Mr. Putin, Ukraine and Mr. Trump will be negotiating from a far stronger position. Peace through strength, someone once called it.
