You may think the place where national leaders gather to talk about the future of the world is Washington, DC, or perhaps the UN Headquarters in New York. In fact, as President Xi Jinping plays host to over 20 presidents and prime ministers in China, a new reality is taking hold.
The formal rationale for getting together is a summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO) in Tianjin, followed by the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the end of the second world war, including a military parade in Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3.
For Mr. Xi the gathering has a higher significance. It shows, he says, that China has become a global leader and the source of stability and prosperity. The origin of uncertainty today is America, he argues, which is unleashing trade wars with almost everyone, and undermining its own network of military alliances and security partnerships.
Mr. Xi’s guest list is impressive. It is one of the largest get-togethers of autocratic regimes in living memory, with Vladimir Putin of Russia, Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran and Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus in attendance. Kim Jong Un of North Korea traveled by armored train, in his first visit to China since 2019.
Even more striking is the presence of leaders of countries that have in recent decades leaned more to the West, including Turkey, Egypt and Vietnam.
Most striking is Narendra Modi, signalling India’s shift from America towards China. That follows Donald Trump’s disastrous double-fault singling India out for sky-high tariffs and embracing its enemy, Pakistan, following a conflict in May.
Mr. Xi’s claim to lead a global coalition of America-skeptic powers is not as fantastical as you might think.
Regarding trade, where all countries want predictability, China’s boast to be an anchor of stability now rings true — at least in relative terms.
The country is already the largest goods-trading partner of most of this week’s visitors, along with another 100-odd states around the world.
As the Trump administration pursues a rolling campaign of economic warfare against its trading partners, China’s sins of mercantilism and state-capitalism look minor by comparison.
There is also a new-found unity opposing sanctions, including the extraterritorial threat America uses to sever individuals, firms and countries from the dollar-based financial system and tech platforms.
Once these were mostly feared by pariahs and rogue states. Mr. Trump wields them with ever less restraint and without a predictable legal process or institutional framework.
Russia, and increasingly China, are already moving away from dollar payments.
Building a trusted, efficient alternative international system is daunting, perhaps impossible, especially for regimes without the rule of law. But more and more countries are interested in exploring options other than America’s dollar system.
Even Europe is promoting a “global euro.” And fewer countries will be interested in enforcing American sanctions on its behalf.
In military affairs, the unity is less impressive. Only a smaller subset of countries, mainly autocratic ones, will attend the parade in Tiananmen Square in Beijing. India will not be there and opposes China’s military buildup after skirmishes on their Himalayan border.
