Even with all the chaos, shape of race unchanged

Sometimes, enough is enough. The shape of the presidential contest has not changed fundamentally since early 2019.

By

Opinion

October 29, 2020 - 8:10 AM

A woman watches on TV as President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden participate in the first presidential debate at the Health Education Campus of Case Western Reserve University, on Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2020, in Cleveland. Photo by (Yuri Gripas/Abaca Press/TNS)

With just days until Election Day, you don’t need another column from me on swing voters or key states. You don’t need more of my analysis of President Donald Trump’s style and how that has affected the race. You don’t need more of my thoughts on the suburbs or partisan polarization, or which Senate races will be crucial and who has the edge in the fight for control.

Sometimes, enough is enough. I’ve already told you what I think about all those things and how I got here. The shape of the presidential contest has not changed fundamentally since early 2019, when I started handicapping the race. The president had plenty of opportunities to change things. He simply chose not to, or maybe (as in the case with COVID-19) he just was not up to the task.

As most readers know, I once rated House and Senate races in my newsletter, which has become “Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.” I decided to use the same categories to rate the presidential contest this cycle that I used for years in rating congressional races.

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