The latest forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture says net farm income will reach $179.8 billion in 2025, up 40% from last year.
On the surface, that sounds like a big rebound. In reality, most of that increase comes from federal disaster payments, not from stronger crop or livestock markets.
USDA says producers will see $40.5 billion in direct government payments this year, more than three times higher than in 2024. Most of that total comes from the Biden-era American Relief Act of 2025, which set aside funds for supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance. Nearly $35.2 billion is tied to covering losses from droughts and other natural disasters in 2023 and 2024.
Without that federal support, farm income would fall to $139.3 billion. Farmers earned $117.7 billion in 2024 without aid.
THE SPLIT shows how shaky the farm economy can be. Combined receipts for corn, soybeans and wheat are forecast to fall $6.8 billion in total, the lowest level since 2007. Livestock producers are seeing stronger returns thanks to tight supplies and high prices, but American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall recently cautioned that fewer than half of U.S. farmers raise livestock — meaning most producers aren’t benefiting.
Livestock sales are forecast to climb to $298.6 billion in 2025, which puts them more than $60 billion ahead of crop receipts. Cattle and calves account for the largest share, projected at nearly $130 billion, while hogs, broilers and eggs are also bringing in stronger returns after several difficult years, according to USDA data.
AND WHILE prices are sliding for key row crops, farmers are also being squeezed by rising expenses. Farmers are expected to spend $467.4 billion in 2025, about $12 billion more than last year. Livestock and poultry purchases are driving much of the increase, up 21.5%. Labor costs are also up 4.3%.
A closer look at the data shows that, while 2025 is forecasted above the 20-year average, the surge in federal aid is playing a significant role — and much of it compensating for disasters in the past two years. Without that safety net, farm profits would look far weaker.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told the Financial Times on Sept. 17 that the Trump administration may consider using tariff revenues as farm aid. However, House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson, a Pennsylvania Republican, questioned the legality of using tariff revenue for farm aid.
According to Reuters, Rollins also said last month that the USDA is working with Congress and “closely monitoring markets daily to evaluate the amount of additional assistance that might be needed this fall.”
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