First-time voters could swing races — but how?

MIAMI  —  Tens of millions of people who have chosen not to vote in recent U.S. elections could be headed to the polls this November in a massive wave that would change the look and feel of the presidential contest, according to a newly published study of “chronic non-voters.”

The sweeping survey of thousands of inactive voters and eligible but unregistered adults, commissioned last summer by the Miami-based John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, found that roughly half of those interviewed were “absolutely certain” they’ll vote in 2020. And given estimates that 100 million eligible adults skipped the last presidential election, that could mean a surge of unlikely voters.

But a sudden uptick in participation wouldn’t necessarily benefit one party. The number of voters who said they’ll vote to reelect Trump was roughly the same as those who said they’ll vote for his eventual Democratic opponent.