For more than two decades, Alexander Lukashenko ping-ponged between Russia and the West, extracting what he could from both sides while ruling Belarus with autocratic fervor and more than a little eccentricity. On Feb. 1, 2020, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo grinned as he shook Mr. Lukashenko’s hand in Minsk and promised closer relations with the United States. In May of that year, Mr. Pompeo announced the United States was shipping a tanker full of oil to Belarus in a gesture of goodwill.
The hopes were misplaced. In the months after meeting Mr. Pompeo, Mr. Lukashenko stole the August 2020 presidential election, forcing the actual winner, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, out of the country. Confronted by massive public demonstrations against the election fraud, Mr. Lukashenko responded with beatings and arrests.
Now, Russia has all but swallowed up Belarus to wage a war against Ukraine. For many years, there has been periodic talk about merging Belarus, population 9.4 million, and Russia, both former Soviet republics. But it was mostly just talk until the protests broke out over the election. Mr. Lukashenko reached for a life raft from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who advised him how to suppress the demonstrations and provided aid.
