President Trump on Wednesday unleashed another broadside against Ukraine, and his dislike for President Volodymyr Zelensky isn’t news. But what matters to U.S. interests — and Mr. Trump’s Presidency — are the terms of a negotiated settlement. Mr. Trump’s current offer looks more like an ultimatum than grounds for a durable peace.
“We’ve issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and the Ukrainians, and it’s time for them to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process,” Vice President JD Vance said from India on Wednesday.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio sounded similar notes last week, and by “walking away” the Administration seems to mean abandoning Ukraine to Vladimir Putin’s designs.
Stipulate that even Ukraine’s ardent supporters understand the war will end in a negotiation. Ukraine won’t regain all of its territory, as regrettable as that is for a country of free people who have resisted Mr. Putin with valor. The Biden Administration squandered the chances for a strategic victory for Ukraine and the U.S. with its hesitant, fretful response to the 2022 invasion.
But Mr. Trump also can’t expect Ukraine to surrender and accept a peace on its knees.
The Administration has said Kyiv can’t join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Never mind that the alliance would be stronger with Ukraine’s military, now highly experienced on the battlefield.
But even without NATO, Ukraine will need a security guarantee worth more than Mr. Putin’s word. The Russian dictator has refused to accept a Ukraine armed by the West with European troops on its soil.
Mr. Trump is angry that Ukraine won’t accept a deal that legitimizes Russia’s occupation of Crimea, as if this is a minor map revision. The U.S. refusal to credit territory seized by invasion is a principle intended to deter future marauders. Letting Russia keep its navy in Crimea is a threat to Europe as much as to Ukraine.
A peace, or even an armistice, worth the name requires compromise on both sides. But Mr. Trump has applied pressure only on Ukraine. Mr. Trump proposed a 30-day cease-fire and Mr. Zelensky accepted. Mr. Putin simply blew off the proposal.
Press reports say the Russian dictator is now pretending it’s a concession to freeze the conflict along current lines — instead of demanding entire provinces it hasn’t been able to seize. The lack of pressure on Mr. Putin is particular malpractice as the Russian dictator is struggling to drum up more troops. Why would Mr. Putin compromise if he will pay no price for refusing — not even more U.S. arms for Ukraine after the current supply runs low this summer?
Mr. Trump likes to say Ukraine doesn’t have the cards, but it does have one ace: The President won’t be able to abandon Ukraine without paying a heavy political price.
As the historian and Stalin biographer Stephen Kotkin said in an interview recently, Americans hate war but they hate losing a war even more.
President Trump may prefer to focus on a nuclear deal with Iran or his trade war with China, but he won’t leverage failure in Europe into success in Asia or the Middle East.
A U.S. flag officer told Congress recently that China has provided 70% of the machine tools and 90% of the legacy chips that have allowed Russia to rebuild its war machine, and that’s a testament to how the world’s problems are now intertwined.
Mr. Trump can still salvage a deal in Ukraine, but the current “final” settlement offer looks like it would set up Mr. Putin to win the war now or later. The world’s rogues will notice, and Mr. Trump’s headaches will have only begun.
