The Kansas Constitution requires all gubernatorial nominees to run on a ticket with their lieutenant governor nominees. Much more fanfare has surrounded the process this year than it has in the past. Why?
The state Constitution and recent history do make one thing clear: the next lieutenant governor may become governor someday. Current Governor Jeff Colyer was elected as lieutenant governor on a ticket with Sam Brownback, then became governor when Brownback resigned for his new ambassador job. Former Governor Mark Parkinson took over when Kathleen Sebelius resigned to join the Obama Administration. In neighboring Missouri, Gov. Mike Parson was elected lieutenant governor on a separate ticket, then became governor when Eric Greitens resigned due to scandals.
Parkinson made critical policy decisions during the Great Recession, and also brokered a compromise on the Sunflower Electric Plant which included renewable energy portfolios quite a record for a two-year governorship. Colyer and Parson are now providing calm hands at the tiller, following tumultuous times under their very different predecessors.
Does all this matter politically, though? This years candidates seem to think it does. Political scientists are not buying it.
The most popular trend is to balance the ticket with a running mate from a different part of the state. Consider these candidate pairings:
Jeff Colyer – Johnson County, Tracey Mann – Gove County
Kris Kobach – Douglas County, Wink Hartman – Wichita
Ken Selzer – Johnson County, Jenifer Sanderson – Good-land
Laura Kelly – Topeka, Lynn Rogers – Wichita
Carl Brewer – Wichita, Chris Morrow – Johnson County
Greg Orman – Johnson County, John Doll – Garden City
Two candidates do not fit this region-balancing pattern. Under fire for his antiabortion votes, Democrat Josh Svaty chose Katrina Lewison of Manhattan, who is pro-choice. Republican Jim Barnett chose his own wife, former foreign service officer Rosie Hansen.
There are other factors, too. A wealthy businessman, Hartman is helping Kobach raise money. Sanderson and Lewison are business professionals who have never before sought nor held elected office. Morrow is a Democratic mayor from a heavily-Republican suburb. Doll switched his affiliation from Republican to Independent for the run, while Lewison went from Independent to Democrat. Lewison is also a decorated Army combat veteran.
Alas, if U.S. vice-presidential politics is any guide, none of this is likely to matter.
Political scientists cannot find any significant relationship in our data, between vice presidential picks and presidential election outcomes. Presidential elections come down to factors like incumbent popularity and the state of the economy unless the country is also in an unpopular war like Korea or Vietnam.
