What happened in France Sunday will bring change throughout Europe, will shake up British politics and should warn budget-cutters in the United States that the public’s appetite for austerity has its limits.
Francois Hollande’s victory over Nicolas Sarkozy has all of these overtones.
Hollande campaigned on a promise to back away from the harsh austerity measures imposed on the 23 nations of Europe primarily by German Chancellor Angela Merkel in partnership with Sarkozy. Hollande promised growth — along with a balanced budget. He also promised much higher taxes on the rich and on high-profit corporations and tossed in a perk or two for the working class.
Chancellor Merkel used Germany’s economic dominance to demand budget cuts throughout the Euro zone in the belief that balanced budgets would lead to economic recovery and save the Euro from destruction by the worldwide recession. Greece became the poster boy country for the theory. The Greeks themselves had an election over the weekend in which the voters punished their leaders for the misery the fiscal discipline created and has yet to moderate.
Spain also is writhing in recession woes, with 25 percent overall unemployment and twice that among the young.
Austerity hasn’t brought recovery yet. Hollande’s victory signals the people of France want to try another medicine.
Sunday was the first dose.
How Hollande proceeds from here will draw the world’s rapt attention.
Of course a growing, thriving economy has grim-faced budget cutting beat all hollow. Making the switch to something better is the challenge. France, like most of the countries in the world, is deeply in debt. By definition, economic growth will require a new infusion of capital. Will the world’s money markets buy enough French bonds to float that investment?
Ask that same question for Italian bonds, Spanish bonds, Portugese bonds. The answer is the money will be there if the projects make sense.
Perhaps Hollande’s best hope lies in a revival of optimism among the French people. In addition to moving away from the austerity of the black-frocked bankers of Bonn, Hollande is also promising to take down the rich a peg or two and lift up the working class. More equality; a better chance for the ordinary guy or gal to make it up the ladder.
When people believe that that ladder can be climbed, they are more likely to begin climbing. And when enough people try persistently enough, the whole economy moves forward. Maybe Francois Hollande can light that fire in France.
WILL THE REVOLT in France spread? Will the Conservatives in England also fall? Will the energy loosed in Paris leap the Atlantic and land in Washington, D.C. ?
Stirrings in England are already muddying the political waters there. David Cameron still has time to steer his party toward center and revitalize its policies. He probably will.
As for the United States, its ultra-austerity party must first impose itself upon the country before it can be rejected. Now in the opposition, the Republicans have succeeded in achieving a stultifying stalemate. Only if they win the presidency and congressional majorities in November can they turn the government of the United States into the pygmy they now promise the faithful.
Which gives voters with imaginations time to decide whether a much smaller, much weaker national government is really what they want their vote to create. How tall do you want Uncle Sam to stand?
— Emerson Lynn, jr.
