Even after the scratching of Omaha Beach, there is an absolute truth about this years Kentucky Derby.
It is a fantastic betting race.
Victory will not come easily on Saturday at Churchill Downs, but those who wind up cashing tickets will likely be stuffing large wads of cash into their pockets. Theres a simple reason for that: There are many legitimate candidates.
Horseplayers will have tons of options that will make perfect sense and that means their wagering money a record $225 million in handle last year on the Derby alone will be spread widely. Short odds wont happen; the favorite will probably go off around 5-1, so payouts for exactas and trifectas could be enormous.
The favorite would have been Omaha Beach. With him out and now in need of throat surgery, Game Winner, Roadster and Improbable all trained by Bob Baffert are the top candidates to be favored.
People will bet all three, and rightly so, but no trainer has ever swept the Derby triple. The one-trainer exacta has been pulled off but is a rarity; H. Guy Bedwell trained Sir Barton and Billy Kelly to a 1-2 finish exactly 100 years ago, Herbert Thompson accomplished it in 1921 and 1926, and the last conditioner to do it was Ben Jones in 1948.
It probably wont be really known which of Bafferts trio will end up as the favorite until a few minutes before post time, depending on which way the bettors are going.
It may be an important detail.
Post-time favorites have won each of the last six Kentucky Derbys, coinciding with the debut of the points system thats used to qualify for the field, and the average price on a $2 win bet has been $8.90 which, to successful bettors, marks a whopping 345% return on their investment. In a savings account with a 2% yield, turning $2 into $8.90 would take just over 75 years.
At the Derby, it tends to happen in a little over 2 minutes.
