A surprise Ukrainian drone attack that targeted several Russian air bases hosting nuclear-capable strategic bombers was unprecedented in its scope and sophistication for the first time reached as far as Siberia in a heavy blow to the Russian military.
Ukraine said over 40 bombers, or about a third of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, were damaged or destroyed Sunday, although Moscow said only several planes were struck. The conflicting claims couldn’t be independently verified and video of the assault posted on social media showed only a couple of bombers hit.
But the bold attack demonstrated Ukraine’s capability to hit high-value targets anywhere in Russia, dealing a humiliating blow to the Kremlin and inflicting significant losses to Moscow’s war machine.
While some Russian military bloggers compared it to another infamous Sunday surprise attack — that of Japan’s strike on the U.S. base at Pearl Harbor in 1941 — others rejected the analogy, arguing the actual damage was far less significant than Ukraine claimed
A look at what warplanes were reported hit:
Russia’s bomber assets
For decades, long-range bombers have been part of the Soviet and Russian nuclear triad that also includes land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and atomic-powered submarines carrying ICBMs. The strategic bombers have flown regular patrols around the globe showcasing Moscow’s nuclear might.
During the 3-year-old war i n Ukraine, Russia has used the heavy planes to launch waves of cruise missile strikes across the country.
The Tupolev Tu-95, which was code named Bear by NATO, is a four-engine turboprop plane designed in the 1950s to rival the U.S. B-52 bomber. The aircraft has an intercontinental range and carries eight long-range cruise missiles that can be equipped with conventional or nuclear warheads.
Before Sunday, Russia was estimated to have a fleet of about 60 such aircraft.
The Tupolev Tu-22M is a twin-engine supersonic bomber designed in the 1970s that was code named Backfire by NATO. It has a shorter range compared with the Tu-95, but during U.S.-Soviet arms control talks in the 1970s, Washington insisted on counting them as part of the Soviet strategic nuclear arsenal because of their capability to reach the U.S. if refueled in flight.
The latest version of the plane, the Tu-22M3, carries Kh-22 cruise missiles that fly at more than three times the speed of sound. It dates to the 1970s, when it was designed by the Soviet Union to strike U.S. aircraft carriers. It packs a big punch, thanks to its supersonic speed and ability to carry 630 kilograms (nearly 1,400 pounds) of explosives, but its outdated guidance system could make it highly inaccurate against ground targets, raising the possibility of collateral damage.
Some Tu-22Ms were lost in previous Ukrainian attacks, and Russia was estimated to have between 50 and 60 Tu-22M3s in service before Sunday’s drone strike.
The production of the Tu-95 and the Tu-22M ended after the 1991 collapse of the USSR, meaning that any of them lost Sunday can’t be replaced.
Russia also has another type of strategic nuclear capable bomber, the supersonic Tu-160. Fewer than 20 of them are in service, and Russia has just begun production of its modernized version equipped with new engines and avionics.
Russia lost a significant part of its heavy bomber fleet in the attack “with no immediate ability to replace it,” said Douglas Barrie of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, noting that Moscow’s announced plan to develop the next generation strategic bomber is still in its early phase.
“Ironically this might give impetus to that program, because if if you want to keep your bomber fleet up to size, then you’re going to have to do something at some point,” he said.
The A-50, which Ukrainian officials also said was hit in the strikes, is an early warning and control aircraft similar to the U.S. AWACS planes used to coordinate aerial attacks. Only few such planes are in service with the Russian military, and any loss badly dents Russia’s military capability.
