When Donald Trump meets Vladimir Putin in Alaska it will be the seventh time the two have talked in person.
This time is different, though. Since their last sit-down, Mr Putin has launched an unprovoked war, lost perhaps a million Russian soldiers (dead and wounded) and inflicted ceaseless misery on Ukrainians in pursuit of an imperial dream.
Undaunted, Mr. Trump hopes to get in a room with a wily dictator, feel him out and forge a deal.
It is the biggest test yet of his uniquely personal style of diplomacy. It is also a reminder of how unpredictable American foreign policy has become.
Will Mr. Trump be firm, making clear that America and its allies will do what it takes to guarantee Ukraine’s sovereignty? Or will he be in such a rush to reopen business with Russia that he rewards its aggression and leaves Ukraine vulnerable to future attacks?
As everyone clamors for the president’s ear, no one knows what he will do.
At the beginning of Mr. Trump’s second term his supporters had a theory about how he would wield American power. Rather than relying on deep relationships and expertise, he would rely on his gut.
As a master negotiator with a knack for sensing what others want and fear, he would cut through the waffle and apply pressure ruthlessly.
Everyone wants access to American markets. By threatening to shut them out, he would force recalcitrant foreigners to end wars and reset the terms of trade to America’s advantage. Career diplomats and experts would be replaced by rainmakers. Yes, his transactional approach might foster a bit of corruption. But if it brought peace in Ukraine or Gaza, who cared?
Alas, there are drawbacks to this approach. Using tariffs as a weapon hurts America, too.
More fundamentally, junking universal principles for might-makes-right repels friends without necessarily cowing foes.
And the substitution of presidential whim for any coherent theory of international relations makes geopolitics less predictable and more dangerous.
Mr. Trump is not a globalist, obviously. Nor is he an isolationist, or a believer in regional spheres of influence. He simply does what he wants, which changes frequently.
One way to make sense of Trumpism is that he divides his efforts at deal-making into three categories: high, medium and low stakes.
In the first category are America’s relations with unfriendly great powers, principally China and Russia. Israel is here, too, because of its importance in American domestic politics. Iran makes an appearance, because of the way it threatens its neighbors.
All these relationships are complex, difficult and matter a lot to Mr. Trump. If he scores a win here — if he ends the war in Ukraine, or brings peace between Israel and the Palestinians, or finds a formula for co-operating with China without endangering national security — then the payoff is potentially staggering.
