Politics and poker, politics and poker
Shuffle up the cards and find the joker
Neither games for children; either game is rough
Decisions, decisions, like
Who to pick, how to play, what to bet, when to call a bluff.
Fiorello, 1959
Sixty years ago, Fiorello, the musical based on the career of New York citys feisty Mayor, Fiorello LaGuardia, premiered on Broadway. It was a smash hit, and six decades later, Politics and Poker remains its most memorable tune, catchy and true.
Kansans can watch a classic poker game over the next couple weeks, a Texas Holdem showdown between Gov. Laura Kelly and Sen. President Susan Wagle. The results of this high-stakes game will determine, at least for 2019, whether Kansas will expand Medicaid or continue to reject the financial benefits that come with it.
The governor and the senate president are worthy, veteran adversaries, with contrasting policy worldviews and very different political situations. Kelly, less than 11 months after announcing her candidacy for governor, won a clear victory over Kris Kobach, even though an independent siphoned off 6 percent of the vote.
Wagle observed that Kelly had not received more than half the vote, and thus had no mandate. Kelly smiled a knowing smile from Cedar Crest.
Wagles political imperative derives from her desire to become a U.S. senator, replacing the retiring Pat Roberts. With her Wichita base and conservative record, she may be viable, but no shoo-in. And heres the rub. Medicaid expansion in various polls, in a host of editorials from around the state, and given the results of a solid favorable vote in the Kansas House is downright popular. Moreover, its likely that there are at least 21 votes, a constitutional majority, to pass expansion in the Kansas Senate. And its chances increased this past week when the governor allowed a Farm Bureau non-insurance bill to become law, thus potentially winning additional backing.
This is where another player comes into the game. Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley has essentially said, lets see what youve got, by filing a motion to move the Medicaid bill out of committee. That takes 24 votes. No one knows if the votes are there, but governor Kelly, Lt. Gov. Lynn Rogers, and outside groups have pushed hard over the legislative recess to build support.
While Wagle seems a clear no, other Republican senators understand that, per Kellys win and Sharice Davids victory in the KS-3 House race, the context of the 2020 election is changing, especially in Johnson County. And other highly conservative states, such as Indiana and Arkansas, have expanded Medicaid. So perhaps some senators might hedge their bets, explaining how small-town hospitals and rural areas will benefit.
Moreover, Kelly is the states chief executive, with the ability to offer legislators inducements unrelated to Medicaid expansion. Overall, she holds better cards than does Sen. Wagle, whose only action is to obstruct.
As the last cards flop on the table, both leaders have a lot at stake, but not everything. Gov. Kelly can live to fight another day, given that she is just in the first few months of her tenure. More importantly, Sen. Wagle does not actually need to win on this issue. Whats central is the position she takes in the fight. She needs the support of far-right Republicans to win the nomination for governor. Win or lose, if she holds tight to her opposing position, she likely maintains this base.
Thus, there could be two winners: the governor on policy and the Senate president on politics. So, lets see the cards.
