As we approach Labor Day, the unofficial start of the general election season, it’s worth looking back at a strategic decision Kansas Republicans made decades ago.
In the early 1970s, as part of efforts to modernize the executive branch, Republicans advanced a constitutional amendment that replaced the old gubernatorial two-year term system, and no term limits, with four-year terms and a two-term limit.
The amendment reworked the electoral calendar as well, moving gubernatorial elections entirely to the midterm cycle, following the directive that executive officers would be chosen “in the year 1974 and every four years thereafter.”
Republicans touted the change as a way to keep Kansas politics separate from national trends.
Presidential elections distracted voters, they argued, pulling attention away from Kansas and toward Washington. Midterms, meanwhile, spotlight state issues. Consequently, Kansans would benefit if their gubernatorial races were insulated from federal politics.
Republicans also saw midterms as friendlier terrain, an electoral environment that promised more victories. Yet, the basis for that confidence remains a mystery.
For example, from 1928 to 1972 Republican gubernatorial candidates won nine of the twelve races held during presidential election years. An excellent 75%-win rate.
But over that same period, Republicans won just seven out of eleven midterm governor races, a middling 63%-win rate.
In other words, midterm contests were not an advantage.
The picture sharpens further when accounting for who sat in the Oval Office.
Midterms under Democrat presidents were a boon for Republicans. Six wins in seven tries. Under Republican presidents, they struggled, dropping three of four.
Gubernatorial races tracked the classic midterm rule; the president’s party pays a price.
That’s not insulation; that’s national politics bleeding straight into Kansas elections.
Today, the pattern persists.
Republicans have won fewer than half of the thirteen midterm governor contests since the change. Their fortunes rise sharply when Democrats hold the White House, winning four of the five contests by an average of twenty-seven points. But under Republican presidents, victories are rare, two of eight by an average of two points.
So, why did Republicans push the amendment?
