In 1979, I bought my first parcel of farmland. It was near Tribune, and I was a proud new landowner. As I recall, the purchase price was $350 per acre. Today, that land is probably worth somewhere in the $2,000-per-acre range. That mirrors trends in farmland values in other parts of the United States.
In the years since that initial purchase, I have seen many changes in the agricultural sector. They include a decline in planted wheat acres in Kansas from about 12.1 million in 1979 to 7.6 million for the 2024 crop (according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service). Corn, soybeans and milo have filled much of the gap. Other examples are the decline in the number of farms from about 75,000 in 1980 to about 55,500 in 2024.
Macro trends that have affected U.S. agriculture in the past two decades include the following:
• The advent of large-scale corn-based ethanol production, which went from virtually nothing to over 5 billion bushels of corn used for that purpose by 2021.
• Greater use of technology in the forms of improved varieties of seeds, precision application of crop inputs and crop monitoring from the sky.
• The addition of about 398 million acres of cropland since the turn of this century, notably in Brazil and India, but also in other regions.
• Declining population growth trends in major importers of U.S. crops, especially China.
For me, the backdrop for all of these trends is my experience going through the farm crisis of the 1980s.
Some of those memories will stay with me for all of my life.
When I think about the current status of agriculture in America, and especially in Kansas, I have deep concerns.
The health of the Kansas economy is highly dependent on the viability of the farm sector, and I see a combination of factors — the likes of which we have not faced in my lifetime — that are disturbing.
The chaos of the Trump administration is undermining agriculture in Kansas and across the nation.
We are seeing traditional importers of U.S. grains, notably China, go elsewhere. The tariffs imposed by our government are doing far more harm than good for farmers who are being hit hard on the cost side of the equation.
Take your pick — wheat, corn, soybeans, milo — not a single crop shows a positive cash flow.
That’s before considering the opportunity cost of the capital used for the inputs, let alone any land debt service. When I refer to opportunity cost, I simply mean that that same capital could be invested in a safe financial instrument, such as a CD, where it would earn interest at a rate above 4% annually.
In recent weeks, I have spoken with bankers in Kansas and nearby states that have heavy concentrations of agricultural loans. All of them told me that they are dreading “renewal season,” which is the time when farmers renew operating loans for the 2026 season.
