The Kansas City Chiefs are scoring more points than at this point last season, allowing fewer, and have improved their turnover margin.
Those are usually ingredients for success, but that’s not the case for the three-time defending AFC champions, who have four fewer wins compared with this point last season and currently are outside of playoff position.
How has that happened?
It’s as simple as looking at how they’ve fared in close games. Kansas City is 0-5 in games decided by eight points or fewer after coming into the season on an NFL-record 17-game winning streak in those situations.
Nothing illustrates the difference more than comparing the first game against Denver in each of the last two seasons. The Chiefs escaped at home with a 16-14 win in Week 10 last season when Wil Lutz’s last-second 35-yard field goal was blocked. Lutz hit a kick from the same distance at home on Sunday for a 22-19 win and a 4 1/2-game advantage in the AFC West over Kansas City.
The Chiefs went 11-0 in one-possession games on the way to a 15-2 record last season, also winning nail-biters thanks to a botched snap by the Raiders, walk-off field goals to beat Carolina and the Chargers, an overtime win over Tampa Bay, a key pass interference call against Cincinnati and a toe on the end line that prevented a possible tying touchdown by Baltimore.
The Broncos have been on the opposite side of the equation, going 7-2 in games decided by eight points or fewer this season, with six of those close wins coming during their current eight-game winning streak that has them at the top of the AFC standings with a 9-2 record.
Denver made the playoffs last season despite a 1-6 record in one-possession games.
The Broncos aren’t alone in having success in close games, with two other surprising first-place teams also doing it. AFC East-leading New England (9-2) is 5-2 in one-possession games, while the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears (7-3) are 5-1.
Chicago has been outscored by six points and is the fifth team in the Super Bowl era to start a season 7-3 or better while being outscored, with the others being Minnesota in 2022, Cleveland in 2020 and Denver in 1979 and 1992. Only the Browns won a playoff game, beating Pittsburgh in the wild-card round.
Special teams plays big impact
From the record-tying five walk-off field goals, several missed kicks and the most long kick returns in any week in a decade, special teams played a major role in Week 11.
Carolina, Chicago, Denver, Houston and Miami all won on field goals on the final play on Sunday, marking just the second time in NFL history there were five walk-off field goals on a single day, with it also happening on Nov. 12, 2023.
