President Trump seems to be moving toward a new realism about Ukraine and Russia, and the mineral deal he signed Wednesday with Kyiv is a welcome step. The deal appears to serve the national interests of both countries.
Washington and Kyiv will establish a reconstruction investment fund to finance projects that include developing Ukraine’s abundant natural resources. That includes large supplies of uranium, natural gas, lithium and other rare-earth minerals valued at some $1 trillion, though about a third are in territory currently occupied by Russia.
The White House says that under the deal the U.S. gets “first choice” to either acquire these resources for itself or “designate the purchaser of our choice.” For the first decade the fund’s profits will be reinvested in Ukraine, but after that both countries will get a share of the return, Kyiv’s Ministry of Economy says.
Ukraine and the U.S. will have equal representation on the board that makes decisions about how to allocate the fund’s resources. Ukraine will pay into the fund half of the revenue it earns from royalties, license fees and similar payments for new oil, gas and critical mineral projects.
The text of the deal says that if the U.S. delivers new military assistance to Ukraine, it will get credit for a capital contribution to the fund. That’s politically helpful, given that Ukraine will run low on weapons in weeks and will need U.S. ammunition and air defenses to stop Russian attacks.
Ukraine’s parliament will have to ratify the deal, but the terms are a big improvement over earlier proposals. Mr. Trump had previously suggested the U.S. would seek repayment for past support to Ukraine under Joe Biden that wasn’t offered as a loan, but this agreement includes no such debt provisions.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy says Kyiv also secured guarantees that the deal will align with its constitution and won’t interfere with its desire to join the European Union.
Details aside, the deal’s real significance is its signal that the U.S. isn’t abandoning Ukraine. It doesn’t include U.S. security guarantees. But the White House said the partnership “sends a strong message to Russia” that “the United States has skin in the game.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called it a signal that “the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.”
The Kremlin seems to read it this way as Vladimir Putin factotum Dmitry Medvedev said “Trump wore down the Kyiv regime,” and he mocked the deal with what he said would soon be “a disappearing country.”
Meanwhile, Lindsey Graham says he has 75 Senate co-sponsors for his bill that would slap tariffs on countries that buy oil, gas and other key productions from Russia. Mr. Putin has shown no interest in negotiating an armistice, and he has ignored Mr. Trump’s offer for a 30-day cease-fire. Ukraine accepted. The Graham bill could move to the Senate floor soon if Mr. Trump decides that there’s no point in continuing fruitless peace talks.
It’s impossible to negotiate peace with a dictator who thinks he has the upper hand to achieve his goal of swallowing Ukraine. The U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal and the Graham sanctions are signs Mr. Putin may have to start being more realistic himself.
