For more than two decades, Alexander Lukashenko ping-ponged between Russia and the West, extracting what he could from both sides while ruling Belarus with autocratic fervor and more than a little eccentricity. On Feb. 1, 2020, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo grinned as he shook Mr. Lukashenko’s hand in Minsk and promised closer relations with the United States. In May of that year, Mr. Pompeo announced the United States was shipping a tanker full of oil to Belarus in a gesture of goodwill.
The hopes were misplaced. In the months after meeting Mr. Pompeo, Mr. Lukashenko…
